Methodology

How The Desk reads a market

Placeholder standfirst. Final copy supplied by the operator.

Methodology

In shortThe Desk compares market probability with model probability. When the gap is meaningful, we publish Pick, Pass, or Avoid. The verdict is an editorial read, not an instruction.

What we analyze

Placeholder copy describing what The Desk analyzes for each covered market. Final copy supplied by the operator.

Market probability

Placeholder copy. Prediction markets express prices as probabilities.

Model probability

Placeholder copy. Model probability is the independent estimate produced by The Desk. It is an estimate, and it can be wrong.

The edge

Placeholder copy. The edge is the difference between the model probability and the market-implied probability.

Verdicts

Each market receives one editorial verdict.

Pick

The Desk sees the market as underpriced. This does not mean the outcome is guaranteed. It means the model and market disagree enough for the market to deserve closer inspection.

Pass

The model and market broadly agree. There may still be an interesting story, but we do not see a meaningful pricing gap.

Avoid

The price looks unattractive. This can happen when both sides of a market appear expensive, unclear, or poorly structured from a value perspective.

Thresholds

Placeholder copy on thresholds — small gaps are usually Pass; larger model-market gaps may become Pick or Avoid.

What we do not do

Placeholder copy. The Desk does not take wagers, hold reader funds, execute trades, or offer personalized financial advice.

Limitations

Placeholder copy. Markets move quickly; prices can change after publication. Models can be wrong.