Prediction markets, explained simply
Placeholder standfirst. Odds Primer helps readers understand prediction-market prices — final copy supplied by the operator.
What is a prediction market?
Placeholder copy. A prediction market lets people express a view on whether an event will happen. Final copy supplied by the operator.
Placeholder example of a market price as an implied probability.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks
Placeholder copy explaining how a prediction market differs from a sportsbook. Odds Primer is neither — it is an editorial site that explains the prices.
What is implied probability?
Placeholder copy. Implied probability is the chance suggested by a market price.
What is an edge?
Placeholder copy. An edge is the gap between the market price and an independent estimate.
What does Pick mean?
Pick means The Desk sees the market as underpriced.
It does not mean the outcome is certain. It means the price deserves closer inspection.
What does Pass mean?
Pass means The Desk’s model and the market broadly agree.
There may be no meaningful pricing gap.
What does Avoid mean?
Avoid means the price looks unattractive.
Sometimes the event is interesting, but the market price is not.
What is "View source"?
Placeholder copy. Odds Primerdoes not take bets or execute trades. The outbound link uses the “View source on [venue] ↗” pattern and sends readers to the third-party venue where the live market price appears.